With the Oscars rapidly approaching, it is time to see if I can do better predicting the winners than nominees.
Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Sirât
The Secret Agent
The Voice of Hind Rajab
This is the only category that I am going to cover where I have not seen all the nominees, because Sirat is having a very limited release and my ticket for it is not until the 23 March. It is also one that should not really be needed as foreign language films should be able to compete in the standard categories. But it does highlight movies that are otherwise not well known and this year the standard is incredibly high, with the Best Picture category indicating that it is a two horse race.
Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: It Was Just an Accident
Should have been nominated: Late Shift
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia – Will Tracy
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams – Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar
The screenplay awards seem pretty straightforward with an obvious pick in each one and I am not going to stick my neck out.
Will win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: Train Dreams – Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar
Should have been nominated: The Ballad of Wallis Island – Tom Basden and Tim Key
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Sinners – Ryan Coogler
There is a small chance that Sentimental Value could cause a shock, but I think the Academy will want to reward Coogler.
Will win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Should win: It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi etc
Should have been nominated: On Falling – Laura Carreira
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Both supporting categories are incredibly difficult to call with awards going to most of the nominees in the precursor events. I think only Fanning can be ruled out here and I am backing the popularity of the film to secure a win.
Will win: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Should win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Should have been nominated: Marisa Abela – Black Bag
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
This is even more tricky as there is an argument for all five, though Lindo is the outsider. Skarsgård seemed to be the favourite for some time but Penn’s BAFTA pushed him up the pecking order just as Del Toro’s chances seem to fade.
Will win: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Should win: Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Should have been nominated: Andrew Scott – Blue Moon
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Michael B Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
For a while this seemed to be neck and neck between Chalamet and Di Caprio, but then Chalamet became a certainty. However, in the last couple of weeks, there seems to have been a backlash against him and Jordan has emerged as a threat. I am banking on Chalamet securing enough votes before his popularity waned.
Will win: Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Should win: Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Should have been nominated: Cillian Murphy – Steve
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia
Maybe the easiest to predict of the lot. Both Buckley and Byrne were the best thing about their films and both are deserving. But, despite her misplaced cat comments Buckley will prevail, and I will choose her for should win as it feels a little overdue.
Will win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Should win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Should have been nominated: Leonie Benesch – Late Shift
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
I am not the biggest fan of Anderson but a win for him in this category feels overdue, and One Battle is widely loved, so this is a no brainer even if Sinners seems to be gaining momentum.
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Should win: Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Should have been nominated: Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza – Warfare
Best Picture
Bugonia
Frankenstein
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
There are only three movies with any chance at all. You could argue that Hamnet could pull off a Shakespeare in Love and shock a hot favourite and the sheer volume of Sinners nominations illustrate that it is very well considered. But I have to plump for PTA picking up his third statuette of the night.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: The Secret Agent
Should have been nominated: Black Bag