With the nominations for March’s Oscars scheduled for 22 January, I thought I would put my head on the block and look at what I think will be nominated, primarily in the Best Picture category.
There are four dead certs. The front runner One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners and Marty Supreme.
After that, things get more complicated, and it has been a while since there was this level of uncertainty. Since the nomination numbers rose from five to ten, there has usually been room for one or two more mainstream, blockbuster, movies.
A few months ago, I would have said that Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash were shoo-ins. But after lukewarm reviews and disappointing box office returns for the Wicked sequel, both of their spots are in doubt.
The other thing we have seen since the expanded nominations has been the regular appearance of foreign language films, culminating in Parasite’s win in 2020. This year, there are four strong contenders: Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent and Sirāt. It is extremely unlikely that all four will get in, with Sirāt being the most vulnerable. Sentimental Value is likely to have strong representation in the acting categories, which will boost its hopes and The Secret Agent has an almost definite best actor nomination so that will help it secure a spot.
We usually get some representation from Netflix and they have a strong hand whilst not threatening to win the top prize. Jay Kelly’s chances seem to be receding but both Train Dreams and Frankenstein have excellent chances of making the cut, with Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and Nouvelle Vague being longer shots.
Of the rest, there is support for F1, Weapons, Blue Moon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and No Other Choice but I expect those to miss out. A more live contender is Bugonia, as The Academy seem to love Yorgos Lanthimos.
So, despite a nagging suspicion that Wicked: For Good will sneak in, my expected ten nominations, in order of likelihood are:
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Bugonia
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Train Dreams
It Was Just an Accident
Of the other main categories, my predictions are:
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Emma Stone – Bugonia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal – Hamnet *
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
* this really is a lead actor performance, but it is running in the supporting category
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners