We are about a week away from the annual Academy Awards, and I do not remember a year when the contenders fluctuated more. As a result, it is hard to pick the winners this year, but I will fearlessly provide my predictions in the major categories here! I have also picked up some nominees I would like to have seen, using the list of eligible films provided by the Academy.
Best adapted screenplay
Nominees are:
A Complete Unknown – Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave – Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
This is one of the few that seems like a near certainty, and having read Robert Harris’ book, I agree that it is an outstanding adaptation.
Will win: Conclave – Peter Straughan
Should win: Conclave – Peter Straughan
Should have been nominated: Sometimes I Think About Dying – Stefanie Abel Horowitz, Kevin Armento and Katy Wright-Mead
Best original screenplay
Nominees are:
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Despite Jesse Eisenberg picking up the BAFTA, I think this is a shoot out between Anora and The Brutalist and may give an indication of where the Best Picture award will go.
Will win: Anora – Sean Baker
Should win: September 5 – Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
Should have been nominated: Mike Leigh – Hard Truths
Best supporting actress
Nominees are:
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
This strikes me as a weak category this year with Saldaña triumphing as there is no viable opposition.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Should win: Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Should have been nominated: Leonie Benesch – September 5
Best supporting actor
Nominees are:
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
This is a much stronger list with Borisov, Norton, Pearce and Strong all giving outstanding performances. However, Culkin seems to be on course to win.
Will win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Should win: Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Should have been nominated: Jesse Plemons – Civil War
Best actor
Nominees are:
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Another category where it has come down to two options. Chalamet is a strong contender, but I think he will just miss out.
Will win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Should win: Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Should have been nominated: Cillian Murphy – Small Things Like These
Best actress
Nominees are:
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
After Gascón’s meltdown, this seems to be a two horse race. Madison has the momentum but I am backing the voters to reward Moore.
Will win: Demi Moore – The Substance
Should win: Demi Moore – The Substance (although I am not seeing I’m Still Here until next week)
Should have been nominated: Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
Best director
Nominees are:
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
For quite a while, Audiard seemed to be a live contender and Mangold looked like he would enter the fight immediately after his film was released. However, I think this is another category that comes down to Anora versus The Brutalist.
Will win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Should win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Should have been nominated: Alex Garland – Civil War
Best picture
Nominees are:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
The most prestigious prize and one that has had more front runners this year than I can remember, Anora was an early favourite, only to be superseded by Emilia Pérez, then Conclave and finally The Brutalist. I am backing things to have gone full circle.
Will win: Anora
Should win: The Brutalist (same caveat as above)
Should have been nominated: From a particularly poor list, I would happily remove A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, The Substance and Wicked. In their place I would have September 5, Civil War, The Outrun, Hard Truths, Small Things Like These, and Blitz.