I have now seen all of the films nominated for the main awards at the upcoming Oscars, except for the Colour Purple that has one nomination. So, now seems a good time to give my thoughts and, for what they are worth, make my predictions for the main categories.

 Best film

  • American Fiction
  • Anatomy of a Fall
  • Barbie
  • The Holdovers
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Maestro
  • Oppenheimer
  • Past Lives
  • Poor Things
  • The Zone of Interest

For the first time that I can remember, my 3 favourite films of last year have all been nominated in this category. Despite the presence of Poor Things and Maestro, this is a very strong list, For a while, it looked like being a contest, but with The Holdovers and Killers of the Flower Moon fading, there seems to be only one winner.

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Past Lives

Should have been nominated: The Old Oak

Best actor

  • Bradley Cooper – Maestro
  • Colman Domingo – Rustin
  • Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
  • Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
  • Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

This is not the strongest field, and it really looks like a two horse race that is almost too close to call. Cillian Murphy may well get the win, but I am backing Giamatti.

Will win: Paul Giamatti

Should win: Paul Giamatti

Should have been nominated: Michael Caine – The Great Escaper and Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

 Best actress

  • Annette Bening – Nyad
  • Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
  • Carey Mulligan – Maestro
  • Emma Stone – Poor Things

The omission of Margot Robbie has resulted in this being the most controversial category. You can make an argument for all of them, but, again, I think this will boil down to a two way contest with Emma Stone just missing out on her second Oscar.

Will win: Emma Stone

Should win: Sandra Huller

Should have been nominated: Greta Lee – Past Lives

Best supporting actress

  • Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
  • Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
  • America Ferrera – Barbie
  • Jodie Foster – Nyad
  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

This is, by far, the easiest category to call. I will have no quibbles with the winner although I would make a different choice.

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Should win: Jodie Foster

Should have been nominated: Shailene Woodley – Ferrari

Best supporting actor

  • Sterling K Brown – American Fiction
  • Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
  • Ryan Gosling – Barbie
  • Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

For months there were 3 certainties in this category and it remains a tight race between the two Roberts and Gosling, all of whom are deserving.

Will win: Robert Downey Jr

Should win: Robert Downey Jr

Should have been nominated: Rhys Ifans – Nyad

 Best director

  • Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
  • Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
  • Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
  • Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
  • The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

It is tempting to think that Scorsese may pick up his second Director Oscar or that Triet can cause an upset, but I do not believe that will happen.

Will win: Christopher Nolan

Should win: Christopher Nolan

Should have been nominated: Celine Song – Past Lives

Best adapted screenplay

  • American Fiction – Cord Jefferson
  • Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
  • Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
  • Poor Things – Tony McNamara
  • The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer

With my other predictions, it seems like there is an obvious winner here, but the screenplay categories often throw up surprises, but the question here is who will cause it. In the end I am plumping for the members to “make amends” for other categories.

Will win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach

Should win: Christopher Nolan

Should have been nominated: Caroline Michel-Aguirre – La Syndicaliste

Best original screenplay

  • Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
  • The Holdovers – David Hemingson
  • Maestro – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
  • May December – Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
  • Past Lives – Celine Song

I cannot see either Maestro or May December figuring but any of the other three could win.

Will win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

Should win: Celine Song

Should have been nominated: Nicole Holofcener – You Hurt My Feelings

Best original score

American Fiction – Laura Karpman

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams

Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson

Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson

Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix

 

A clear win for Oppenheimer here.

 

Will win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson

Should have been nominated: Gavin Brivik – How to Blow up a Pipeline and Mica Levi – Zone of Interest

Best cinematography

El Conde – Edward Lachman

Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto

Maestro – Matthew Libatique

Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema

Poor Things – Robbie Ryan

 

I cannot see anything other than Oppenheimer adding to its haul or Killers of the Flower Moon picking up a rare award.

 

Will win: Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto

Should win: Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema

Should have been nominated: All of Us Strangers – Jamie Ramsay