I have now seen all of the films nominated for the main awards at the upcoming Oscars, except for the Colour Purple that has one nomination. So, now seems a good time to give my thoughts and, for what they are worth, make my predictions for the main categories.
Best film
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
For the first time that I can remember, my 3 favourite films of last year have all been nominated in this category. Despite the presence of Poor Things and Maestro, this is a very strong list, For a while, it looked like being a contest, but with The Holdovers and Killers of the Flower Moon fading, there seems to be only one winner.
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Past Lives
Should have been nominated: The Old Oak
Best actor
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Colman Domingo – Rustin
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
This is not the strongest field, and it really looks like a two horse race that is almost too close to call. Cillian Murphy may well get the win, but I am backing Giamatti.
Will win: Paul Giamatti
Should win: Paul Giamatti
Should have been nominated: Michael Caine – The Great Escaper and Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
Best actress
- Annette Bening – Nyad
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro
- Emma Stone – Poor Things
The omission of Margot Robbie has resulted in this being the most controversial category. You can make an argument for all of them, but, again, I think this will boil down to a two way contest with Emma Stone just missing out on her second Oscar.
Will win: Emma Stone
Should win: Sandra Huller
Should have been nominated: Greta Lee – Past Lives
Best supporting actress
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
- America Ferrera – Barbie
- Jodie Foster – Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
This is, by far, the easiest category to call. I will have no quibbles with the winner although I would make a different choice.
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should win: Jodie Foster
Should have been nominated: Shailene Woodley – Ferrari
Best supporting actor
- Sterling K Brown – American Fiction
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
For months there were 3 certainties in this category and it remains a tight race between the two Roberts and Gosling, all of whom are deserving.
Will win: Robert Downey Jr
Should win: Robert Downey Jr
Should have been nominated: Rhys Ifans – Nyad
Best director
- Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
- Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
- Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
- Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
- The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
It is tempting to think that Scorsese may pick up his second Director Oscar or that Triet can cause an upset, but I do not believe that will happen.
Will win: Christopher Nolan
Should win: Christopher Nolan
Should have been nominated: Celine Song – Past Lives
Best adapted screenplay
- American Fiction – Cord Jefferson
- Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
- Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
- Poor Things – Tony McNamara
- The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
With my other predictions, it seems like there is an obvious winner here, but the screenplay categories often throw up surprises, but the question here is who will cause it. In the end I am plumping for the members to “make amends” for other categories.
Will win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
Should win: Christopher Nolan
Should have been nominated: Caroline Michel-Aguirre – La Syndicaliste
Best original screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
- The Holdovers – David Hemingson
- Maestro – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
- May December – Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
- Past Lives – Celine Song
I cannot see either Maestro or May December figuring but any of the other three could win.
Will win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
Should win: Celine Song
Should have been nominated: Nicole Holofcener – You Hurt My Feelings
Best original score
American Fiction – Laura Karpman
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams
Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix
A clear win for Oppenheimer here.
Will win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
Should have been nominated: Gavin Brivik – How to Blow up a Pipeline and Mica Levi – Zone of Interest
Best cinematography
El Conde – Edward Lachman
Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro – Matthew Libatique
Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema
Poor Things – Robbie Ryan
I cannot see anything other than Oppenheimer adding to its haul or Killers of the Flower Moon picking up a rare award.
Will win: Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto
Should win: Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema
Should have been nominated: All of Us Strangers – Jamie Ramsay